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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-30T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-30T18:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45936/-1
CME Note: Second of two faint, wide CMEs seen to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and to the southeast more prominently in STEREO A COR2; the source could be associated with a minor eruption in 14428 (~S24W11), with a slowly varying dimming signature starting after 18:00Z best viewed in SDO composite imagery, particularly the 304/211/171 Angstrom imager. Follows shortly behind CME: 2026-04-30T12:38Z which has a similar appearance. Triangulation between the SOHO and STEREO A spacecraft strongly suggests a front-sided source location, though the source is relatively uncertain. CME arrival characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 4 to 8 nT near 2026-05-04T04:10Z, a slow gradual rise to above 10 nT, and separation in magnetic field components after 2026-05-04T15:00Z until approximately 2026-05-06T04:00Z. Enhancements in solar wind density and small increases and decreases in velocity and temperature, respectively, were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-04T04:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-05T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45938/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-30T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=6.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=237.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2026-05-01T07:23Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-05T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260501_072300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.03 hour(s)
Difference: -27.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-30T22:08Z

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